Cleveland Indians’ Front Office Faces Major Payroll Decisions

Once the 2020 MLB World Series Champion is crowned and the shortened season is put to rest, the Cleveland Indians will be faced with some critical decisions.

Like every team in Major League Baseball, Cleveland faces an expected loss of revenue from a season shortened by the impact of COVID-19.

While having no fans in the stands dramatically reduced revenue streams, there was one glimmer of financial hope for MLB team owners. They were able to realize broadcast rights fees for the regular season and the expanded playoffs. But in the greater scheme of things, 2020 financial losses will be substantial for every club.

A smaller-market franchise like the Cleveland Indians may feel the pain of the shortened season more than a large market team like the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers. But make no mistake, even large market teams have experienced the financial impact a deadly virus has inflicted.

In the view of this writer, the front office of the Cleveland Indians is among the very best in evaluating talent and getting the greatest return for ownership’s financial resources. The Indians are led by President of Baseball Operations Chris Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff.

Team Payrolls:

Few indicators illustrate baseball’s greatest problem more than the annual team payroll.

The personal financial situations of the franchise owners as well as the size of their markets is incredibly unbalanced. The playing fields are not equal. Market size matters.

In 2018, the Cleveland Indians team payroll was estimated at $143,104,703.

In 2019, the Cleveland Indians team payroll was estimated at $107,693,747.

During this past season, team payrolls reflected the reduction in the number of games played.

Still, the payroll differences among smaller and larger market clubs is significant. Here is a snapshot of representative team payrolls for the shortened 2020 season:

Reduced Payroll Estimates according to fangraphs.com and spotrac.com:

In 2020, the Cleveland Indians reduced/adjusted team payroll is estimated to be $37,549,107

Kansas City Royals: $34,812,194

St. Louis Cardinals: $72,246,343

Houston Astros: $82,536,161

Los Angels Dodgers: $107,917,397

New York Yankees: $109,439,081

Player development acumen in small to mid-market front offices is essential if the team is to be competitive. Those responsible for player decisions in financially challenged organizations must identify and sign players who offer team contract control and superb performance at reasonable and an economical financial value. More than ever before, managing financial payrolls has become a survival equation and a fact of life for franchises with limited resources.

Cleveland Indians Financial Decisions:

The Cleveland Indians are a very good illustration of a team with a potentially escalating team payroll that exceeds the ownership’s comfort level. 

Francisco Lindor is recognized as among the finest multiple-tool players in the game. But 2021 will be Lindor’s final season of arbitration eligibility. After next year, Lindor can become an unrestricted free agent. 

Lindor’s full 2020 salary would have been $17.5M. In arbitration he will likely be awarded a salary increase. Do they Indians want to pay Lindor more than $17.5 to play shortstop in 2021? That would be doubtful. It is likely they will try to trade Lindor for younger, more affordable and controllable players this offseason. Lindor is coming off a rather mediocre regular season and an abysmal postseason performance which may impact the return in trade. 

Possibly in anticipation to losing Lindor, the team recently traded for highly regarded shortstop Gabriel Arias, sending pitcher Mike Clevinger and a player to be named to the San Diego Padres in return for six players. Infielder Owen Miller, a solid hitting prospect also came to Cleveland in the deal.

The Indians selected shortstop Carson Tucker with their first pick in the 2020 MLB First Year Player Draft. He joins Arias, Brayan Roccio and Tyler Freeman as well regarded future candidates to ultimately fulfill the shortstop role for Cleveland. They may deploy a short-term solution at shortstop if Lindor is traded.

There is little doubt the Indians have been planning for the departure of Lindor, preparing to replace him with a less expensive option.

First baseman Carlos Santana returned to Cleveland in 2019 after spending time with the Philadelphia Phillies. Santana had a wonderful 2019 season with the Tribe, but he tailed off markedly this year. Santana, like Lindor, would have earned $17.5M this year if the regular season was played. The Indians hold a club option on Santana for the same $17.5M next year. Will they exercise that option? That too, is doubtful. 

In the trade that sent Clevinger to San Diego, the Indians received Josh Naylor as part of the return. His salary? $568,500. As an inexpensive, controllable player, Naylor may be an option to play first base instead of Santana. So is Bobby Bradley, another young and controllable player who did not make the big league 30-man roster this season. Jake Bauers remains on the roster, and he can play first base. Maybe the Indians make a trade for a first baseman. If given the opportunity, perhaps Santana will sign a contract much more favorable to the Indians payroll. Again, Santana’s future is a decision the Indians must make.

There are other current Cleveland Indians players that may be more expensive than the team is willing to pay.

Reliever Brad Hand has a club option for $10M, a $3M increase from his 2020 contract. Do the Indians want to pay their closer that kind of money? They have inexpensive Emmanuel Clase and emerging reliever James Karinchak under team control for years to come. Clase will be returning from violating the MLB drug policy. Can he realize his potential after a season of inactivity? Exercising Hand’s 2021 option is also doubtful.

Pitcher Carlos Carrasco Is signed for $12M next year. With young pitchers in the Indians system, would Carrasco join Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger as stellar starting pitchers that have recently been traded? Carrasco is signed thru 2022. His salaries will be $12M (2021) $12M (2022) and then there is a mutual option for 2023 at $14M.

Can Carrasco’s place in the rotation be assumed by an inexpensive starter like recently acquired Cal Quantrill? Quantrill also came in the deal with the Padres and has been developed as a starting pitcher. 

Catcher Roberto Perez is in the last year of his contract. The Indians hold team options for Perez at $5.5M in 2021 and $7.5M in 2022. But in that same Clevinger deal with the Padres, fine defensive catcher Austin Hedges was included in the trade. While maybe not as great a defender as Perez, Hedges has two more years of arbitration eligibility before free agency. Hedges’ salary this year would have been $3M, $500,000 less than Perez. But it is not likely he will match Perez’ club option. The Indians have a decision to make. They also have catcher Sandy Leon on the roster. He enters free agency after this season. Youngster Bo Naylor waits in the minor league development program. Perez? Hedges? Leon? Decisions await at catcher.

Looking Ahead At The Indians Future:

Life will go on with the Indians, even if Lindor, Santana, and Hand depart.

To begin, it is likely the nickname Indians will be changed. If and when the nickname is changed, it could introduce an entire new era of Cleveland baseball. Does that happen before next season? That’s a big decision to be made.

It is important to note that second baseman Cesar Hernandez, left-hander Oliver Perez and catcher Sandy Leon are now free agents. Each requires a decision regarding their future with Cleveland.

If they so desire, Cleveland can rely upon young, controllable pitching to grab their next wave of success. They will have starters Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, and Triston McKenzie to form a very formidable base for a starting rotation for years to come. If they keep Carrasco, he rounds out a terrific group of five high quality starters. In addition to the afore mentioned Cal Quantrill, currently injured Jefry Rodriguez could find his way into the rotation mix.

The bullpen may be a place to upgrade via trade or free agency, but options exist. Cleveland will have Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak to anchor the back end of the bullpen. Young Phil Maton is a solid middle-reliever. Cam Hill fits there as well, as does Quantrill if he isn’t in the rotation. Converted outfielder Anthony Gose is an intriguing lefty as are left-handers Scott Moss, Logan Allen and Sam Hentges.

Outfielder Franmil Reyes has proven his power can be game-changing, and he’s still only 25. Tyler Naquin could be in the outfield mix next year along with Oscar Mercado, Delino DeShields, Josh Naylor, Bradley Zimmer and Jordan Luplow. Jake Bauers and Daniel Johnson could certainly resurface in the 2021 outfield plans. Do they keep each of those outfielders?

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez signed a one-year contract for this year with Cleveland, and he has been a consistent performer on both sides of the ball. Do the Indians pursue an extension with Hernandez? That awaits a decision.

Even third baseman Jose Ramirez, an All Star quality player will be getting expensive. After next season, he has two club options that could cause some acid reflux in the front office.

Conclusions:

If the Indians lose Lindor, Santana, Hand, and possibly even Carrasco and Perez this offseason, they will still be competitive. There are capable organizational replacements for each of those players.

Clearly the Indians have serious financially based decisions to make this offseason.

If ownership dictates that the team must again cut payroll for 2021, a very capable front office can manage that directive.